News
Bear
Volatility: 3/5
Jeff Currie Sees ‘Extremely High’ Chance of $5 Gas by Midterms
September 11, 2026
·
bloomberg
·
65% confidence
Summary
Strategist Jeff Currie forecasts US gasoline hitting $5/gallon before midterms on scarcity and currency debasement.
AI Analysis
Higher pump prices act as a consumer tax, squeezing discretionary spending and reinforcing inflation, keeping the Fed hawkish. Bullish for energy, bearish for transport, airlines and retailers — net negative for broad S&P 500 margins.
Direction
Bear
Volatility
3/5 - Moderate
AI Confidence
65%
Affected Stocks
XOM
CVX
OXY
PSX
VLO
SLB
DAL
UAL
AAL
LUV
TGT
AMZN
Likely Winners
XOM (Exxon Mobil)
CVX (Chevron)
OXY (Occidental Petroleum)
PSX (Phillips 66)
VLO (Valero Energy)
SLB (Schlumberger)
Likely Losers
DAL (Delta Air Lines)
UAL (United Airlines)
AAL (American Airlines)
LUV (Southwest Airlines)
TGT (Target)
AMZN (Amazon)
Suggested Action
Buy XLE to position for rising crude and gasoline prices
Recommended Actions
- Buy XLE to position for rising crude and gasoline prices
- Go long refiners VLO and PSX on crack-spread expansion
- Short or buy puts on DAL and UAL into a higher jet-fuel cost environment
- Buy RBOB gasoline futures or UGA as a direct pump-price hedge
- Add TIP or short-duration T-bills to hedge persistent inflation risk